UPSIDE VS. DOWNSIDE RISK---- PART 3
The test continues:
26………You’ve
made a healthy bet in a Graded race after your horse came into the
paddock looking like a million bucks and warmed up smartly under one
of the top riders at your track. He completes his warm-up with 3
minutes to post, turns around, and begins the long walk to the
starting gate. As he nears the gate with a minute to post, he starts
getting “hot” and a bit fractious. You have time to
cancel your wager. You decide to hold on to it. Was that decision
upside or downside risk?
27………The
morning line in a race that you intend to bet shows your selection
going off at a generous 12-1. The night before when you made your
own morning line, you had this same horse @ 3-1. That brings you to
an inescapable conclusion. Either the linesmaker is correct and
you’re wrong or vice versa. You decide not to re-handicap the
race and you stick with your selection. Is that upside or downside
risk?
28………You
plan on going to the track on Saturday, but get in late Friday night
after attending a great party and oversleep the next morning. You
get up 3 hours late and give the day’s racing card the
equivalent of a 2-minute drill in football. Was that “hurry
up” handicapping upside or downside risk?
29………You
have no reservations about betting back foreign debut winners in
their 2nd stateside starts. Is that upside or downside
risk?
30………A
horse gets claimed on your home circuit by a top claiming trainer.
In his first start for his new connections 45 days later, he shows up
at the same level at which he was claimed with a decent morning
worktab in tow. Would betting him today be upside or downside risk?
31………You
keep track of the running profiles of the track(s) that you are
handicapping at the moment so that you know exactly how the surfaces
are playing. Is this upside or downside risk?
32………Whenever
you wager, you always bet the fastest horse in the past performances.
Is this upside or downside risk?
33………Tomorrow
you plan on making one of the largest wagers of your betting career.
You handicapped this race and re-handicapped this race. You came up
with the same horse both times and you can’t wait for the sun
to rise the next day. Upon getting out of bed the next morning, you
decide to give the race one more hard look. Will this wager be
upside or downside risk?
34………You
bet one of your selections even though he fails to canter for at
least 4 furlongs before loading into the starting gate. Is this
upside or downside risk?
35………You
compute a daily track variant for the turf courses that you play. Is
this upside or downside risk?
36………A
claiming trainer on your circuit reclaims a horse in his very next
start from the trainer that claimed it from him last out. From a
handicapping standpoint, was this reclaim upside or downside risk?
37………For
no discernable reason, a top trainer runs a winning turf horse over
the dirt where the horse has never won before. You decide to bet the
horse. Was your decision to wager upside or downside risk?
38………A
successful front running sprinter is being stretched out this
afternoon around 2 turns for the first time in his career and is at
his proper class level. His distance pedigree says absolutely “no
problem”, but he faces rugged and proven 2-turn winners. Would
betting him today be upside or downside risk?
39………You
incorporate “physicality handicapping” into your overall
handicappping methodology. Is this upside or downside risk?
40………You
wagered on 1 or more of the recently completed Breeder’s Cup
Races. Was your wager(s) upside or downside risk?
41………You
wagered on the Kentucky Derby. Was your wager upside or downside
risk?
42………You
saw a jockey literally “stiff” a horse last out when sent
postward at 8-5. He comes back in his next race 3 weeks later at the
same class level with the same jockey and shows 2 morning drills.
You have no “knocks” on him whatsoever. However, his
morning line of 5-2 balloons up to 8-1 with 3 minutes to post. You
bet him anyway. Was that wager upside or downside risk?
43………You
incorporated “nuances” into your overall handicapping
methodology. Is this upside or downside risk?
44………You
take your own trip notes rather than depending on comments at the end
of a horse’s running line in his past performances. Is your
trip note taking upside or downside risk considering the time it
takes away from your other handicapping duties?
45………You’re
a dyed-in-the-wool “weekend warrior” and religiously play
every weekend, every holiday, and any other day that you can escape
from the “real world”. On Saturday, you get your clock
thoroughly cleaned and go 0 for 4 for the afternoon. You walk out of
the track pissed off and scratching your head, hop in your car for
the drive home, and manage to repeat the phrase “I shoulda”
exactly 9,327 times before pulling into your driveway. You eat
dinner, watch some TV and call it a day. Bed turns out to be the
“best bet” of the long losing day. You get a solid
night’s rest, get up feeling refreshed and handicap Sunday’s
card as usual with no deviations because of yesterday’s
humbling experience. You end up locating 3 playable races and end up
betting 2 of the 3 as you would on any other afternoon. Were those
wagers upside or downside risk?
46………You
keep impeccable records of every one of your wagers. Is this upside
or downside risk?
47………Over
the years you’ve developed very strong prejudices against
certain jockeys and trainers. You been around long enough to know
that these disliked jockeys and trainers actually do occasionally win
races. What’s more, you accept the fact that once in a while
when they win, they might even beat you. Is your prejudiced thinking
upside or downside risk?
48………You
always spend a lot more time handicapping better
races that on the surface seem more playable, rather than spending a
like amount of time on the cheapest races on the card. Is this extra
expenditure of time on the better races during your limited
handicapping period upside or downside risk?
49………You
bet as many low end claiming races as you do high end claiming or
allowance races? Is this upside or downside risk?
50………You
just spent a considerable amount of your precious time taking this
test to see if you have a basic understanding of the difference
between upside and downside risk. Was the time spent upside or
downside risk?
That concludes my 50
question test and challenge to you to see if you’re a “top
banana” when it comes to risk management.
In my next installment,
you’ll get the answers with my full explanations.
In the meantime, please
print out the entire test and answer each question with a pen. If
you’d rather do it on your computer and feel more comfortable
doing so, that’s fully acceptable. Nobody is good enough to
keep all 50 answers in their heads. Just make sure your answers are
in place before you start reading any answers.
Stay tuned!
UPSIDE VS.
DOWNSIDE RISK---PART 4---THE ANSWERS
© Joe Takach 2003 |
