THE IMMUTABLE LAWS OF HANDICAPPING----PART 4

 (In our prior 3 installments we covered weight, layoffs, first-time starters and asking a horse to do something new.)  

5---AVOID BETTING HORSES WHO WON LAST OUT UNLESS GETTING 6-1 OR BETTER 

Boy did somebody get the wrong (and do I mean WRONG) number here! 

I can’t remember where I once saw the raw statistics that stated that horses repeated on average only once in every 5 attempts and won three in a row only once in every 12 attempts! 

Put another way, and again just using raw statistics, for every 5 horses that you bet to repeat, only one will.  And for every 12 horses that you bet to “three-peat”, only one will grab his “hat trick”!  

Put yet a 3rd way, and once more using just raw statistics, you’d be certifiably brain-dead to bet any horse to repeat unless getting at least 6-1 to win and at least 13-1 for 3 wins in a row.  

Let’s explain the term “raw statistics” so there can be no misunderstandings. 

These “raw statistics” were taken from a study of a lot of races where the computer isolated last out winners and merely calculated how many repeated without considering any handicapping factor other than they won their last race. 

The 3 in a row statistic came about in like manner.  The computer only looked at “repeaters” or horses who had posted back-to-back wins and then went on to calculate how many of those double winners went on to “three-peat”. 

I don’t question these “raw statistics” a single iota. 

What I question are handicappers blindly adhering to these archaic “raw statistics”. 

There are many times when they need not get 6-1. 5-1, 4-1 3-1, or even 2-1 at the mutuel windows before they bet a horse to repeat.  In fact, that can also be said of horses to “three-peat”.  There are times when getting as low as 9-5 or 8-5 on a horse to repeat or three-peat is an overlay! 

Did I just see all those “money management” freeks (handicappers) heading or running for the door.  Maybe you shouldn’t be so quick to leave.  Stick around and you might learn something that “raw statistics” can never teach you.  And before you label me “money-management impaired”, reads on and see if there is ever validity in taking under 6-1 for a runner to repeat or a repeater to three-peat. 

Here goes!  There are many things that I demand of all my wagers, let alone betting a horse to repeat or three-peat. 

If you’ve read me extensively over the past 2 decades, one personal rule is unbreakable in every sense of the word before I bet any horse!  He’s must be racing sound with good muscle, good color and good extension walking, along with a positive attitude towards the upcoming race.  He additionally must properly warm-up in the pre-race exercise period in a full light canter for at least 4 furlongs (1/2) mile.  Slow-trotting or fast-trotting rather than a full canter is NOT acceptable.  They must be cantering!  That said we move on. 

It really doesn’t matter if the horse in question is looking to repeat or three-peat. 

I’ve found over the past 10 years in Southern California that a heavily disproportionate number of “repeaters and “three-peaters” (in addition to looking physically correct and warming up strongly in the pre-race) possess a certain type of running line in their past performances with a painfully obvious common thread. 

Running lines like those directly below serve as good examples and it matters little if these running lines are for a sprinter or a router.  Can you find the commonality? 

    6                      4                        hd                      3

2                      2                      1                      1

    hd                     1                          2                          4

1                      1                      1                      1

     8                      4                       1                          2

5                      4                      3                      1

    hd                      no                      nk                       5

3                      2                      1                      1

    ½                    1                         4                         8         

1                      1                      1                      1

If you said that common thread boils down to nothing more than running lines that show horses gaining ground at every single running call as exhibited in each of the above sequences, you’ve moved to the “head of the class”! 

If you still have the last 10 years of racing forms in your garage and were you to do a study to verify this, you’ll come up with the same inescapable conclusion! 

Most repeaters and three-peaters share this common thread regardless of their post time odds. 

I’m sure your first question is “why”.  The best that I can come up with is that whenever a horse gains ground at every running call in his latest winning race, he’s in tip-top physical shape along with a great mental attitude.  When they repeat or threepeat it should shock nobody, as the horse is literally willing and able to run his best! 

Yes, it’s simplistic but only if you know what you are looking for when viewing contenders over your satellite monitors, or better yet in person when perusing the paddock.  If a runner gained ground at every call when winning last out and “looks” the part this afternoon while properly placed, he most likely is the “real thing” no matter how high or low the odds in the mutuel pool! 

NEXT WEEK-----PART 5

© Joe Takach 2001