SUCKER BETS---(part 18)
28---FAILS TO WIN WHEN DROPPING FROM MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT by Joe Takach

If you’ve been around our game for any great length of time, you are most likely aware that the drop from Maiden Special Weight company into the maiden claiming ranks is the most significant in the maiden arena. In fact, some professionals refer to this drop as the “most’ significant” in all horseracing.
I’m still on the fence as to whether or not it is the “most significant” drop in racing, but one thing is for sure. You better pay strict attention to any and all Maiden Special Weight dropdowns no matter how bad their form in the past performances.
When this major drop occurs, total form reversals are the “norm” not the exception.
Runners with 5 or 6 races under their belt that have never shown a lick of speed in Special Weight company, suddenly find themselves setting the pace in maiden claimers. Other dropdowns that have run dead last or close to it in prior Special Weight affairs, unexpectedly find themselves making big “middle moves” on the far turn and closing substantial ground in the stretch.
On the other side of the coin, all Special Weight runners with good early foot retain their
speed and early fractions, but they don’t have to work as hard to set these fractions or to press the leader.
What’s going on here?
Why the frequent form reversals and why does Special Weight speed carry further and almost effortlessly in the maiden claiming ranks?
Real simple.
The Special Weight dropdowns have been running against the best maidens on the grounds. The winners of these affairs go on to be Allowance, Stakes and Graded winners.
The maiden claiming winners rarely win an “open” Allowance race thruout their entire careers, let alone a Stakes or Graded contest. They are at the bottom rungs of all “horseydom”.
In Southern California, the overwhelming vast majority of these maiden claiming winners go on to be lowly 8, 10, 12.5, and 16K claimers if not going directly to the minor leagues. They are not the “bluebloods” of racing but rather the “working class”. Unlike their expensive counterparts in the higher echelons, these drones will race many more times than the “bluebloods” thruout their careers and because of those added starts, they are likely to be more physically problematic in the long run.
So that’s the maiden ranks in a nutshell.
On the major circuit in Southern California, the maiden claiming ranks start at 25K and can go as high as 125K. But even at the highest maiden claiming level, the purses for Special Weight are much higher. There is no “crossover” in the maiden claiming ranks as there is in the “open” claiming ranks where a solid 50K claimer can effectively compete in an allowance for other-than-1s.
Maiden claimers can’t compete with “legitimate” Maiden Special Weight horses---------period. That’s why they are maiden claimers!
This brings us full circle to an explanation of our “sucker bet”.
When a Maiden Special Weight runner drops for the first time into the maiden claiming ranks after disappointing a couple of times against much better, dramatic improvement is expected if not an outright victory.
Keep in mind that these Special Weight dropdowns were running against the future “stars” of their circuit and now face horses soon to become the “walking wounded” of their backside.
If they can’t win off this huge drop, they were never Maiden Special Weight material to begin with, but rather cheap maiden claimers from small and clueless barns.
When these dropdowns do win in Southern California, they come from winning barns
that wisely see that their once “highly regarded well bred ” runner didn’t turn out to be “somebody” and thus needed the drop to become competitive.
When a good barn makes this drop and puts their runner up for “sale” in the maiden claiming ranks, they often expect to lose their horse via the claim box. Knowing this, capable barns will have their dropdown fully cranked and ready to run their best race. If they win but lose their horse, at least the owner additionally gets the winning purse money added to the maiden claiming price.
Put another way, this drop by a top barn usually signals “now or never”!
But if these Special Weight dropdowns from capable barns fail to visit the winner’s circle on their very first attempt against maiden claimers, they quickly become “sucker bets” in their next outings no matter how close they finished in the first drop.

PART 19----MORE “SUCKER” BETS

© Joe Takach 2006