PART 2----WHO’S THE BEST HANDICAPPER? 

Of the tens of thousands of races that I’ve handicapped during a tenure of 40 years of almost daily play, I doubt that there have been more than a dozen times or situations where there was absolutely no doubt in my mind that I had solved “the problem”.  I had the winner and I positively knew it.  To quote Andy Beyer, they were my “mortal locks”!   

Most of them did win.  The ones that weren’t victorious, were severely compromised somewhere during the running of the race when victims of negative or bad racing luck such as a very bad trip or getting severely checked or blocked.  I even once lost due to my rider falling off the horse.   

With all other wagers over the past 4 decades, I felt “pretty certain” that I had located the winner or at least certain enough to put down my money.  My only lingering regret that continues to this day is that I still don’t feel I have enough time to more deeply investigate each and every factor in every race in which I have an interest.  I know I would cash more tickets or at least have the needed confidence to bet more money.  Fine tuning any stereo system surely improves the overall sound.  Fine tuning your handicapping in like manner surely improves your overall bottom line! 

More time means more potential to unearth more proprietary (self-generated) information. 

In our current “information age”, most handicappers have valid speed and pace figures. Trainer and jockey stats are “common tender” much like the past performances themselves.  Nightly video replay shows enable all to see “trouble horses”.  There are stats available on most, but not all aspects of our game.  In fact, many winning players generate their own information on factors that they believe will give them an edge that few others enjoy. 

Let me use myself as an example.  And I’m not afraid to reveal what information I personally use and need before I wager.  I’m not worried because very few players are willing to put in the necessary hours of “grunt” work to get the same information---it is one hellava lot of work! 

Here goes.  When I moved to Southern California, I was literally shocked when I couldn’t find a “shoeboard” at Del Mar, Santa Anita, or Hollywood Park!  And worse yet, even when the Racing Form began publishing “barshoe” information in their past performances a few years back, this “shoe” information still wasn’t available for the common man in Southern California.  

Even Northern California’s “minor” league tracks (Bay Meadows and Golden Gates) offer this utterly essential and crucial betting information.   

But if you didn’t know any better and were instead viewing only the past performances for the three major tracks at a satellite outlet and not in the paddock for empirical observation, you’d think that “barshoes” were never worn by any horse running at any of these 3 major ovals in Southern California.  Or, you might even conclude that any horses adorned with such negative footwear were not allowed to race at any of these 3 major ovals. 

Of course, nothing could be any farther from the truth!  

If you don’t think that barshoes are important, try this experiment.  Let the air out of one of you car tires and then drive your car as fast as you can.  

What’s that?  You’d have to be literally “crazy” to drive your car at full speed with one deflated tire.  Do you mean the same kind of “craziness” needed to bet horses who only have 3, and in some cases only 2, good hooves?  Have I made my point? 

So what does one do when confronted with such a “testy” situation such as no shoeboard?

He does what I started doing as soon as “reality” hit me.  Necessity has always been the mother of invention---one merely collects, records and evaluates the data himself if that information will help him to cash more tickets.  Any horse he catches walking the paddock in barshoes with or without covered frogs, or in ¾ shoes, or in squared toed shoes are not only “instant throwouts” that specific afternoon, but they are also instant throwouts in their next start or starts. 

Hoof problems simply don’t disappear overnight, nor do they vanish from race to race.  In fact, in nearly every case, if a hoof problem is to disappear at all or begin to repair itself, time off from racing is what’s needed not another race in 3 weeks!    

When handicapping any field or race card, instant toss outs in the form of negatively shod runners can save many “bad bets” and save a lot of time---very precious time that could be better spent trying to “hone” your final contenders down to a single horse. 

In addition to negative “shoes”, after arriving in Southern California 10 years ago, I also continued my long time Eastern habit of tracking all horses running in “blowouts” or “stops”. 

“Blowouts” are white adhesive patches placed on the inside of either or both rear knees.  They are employed to help cushion the impact of the rear knees as they hit themselves whenever a horse runs at full tilt.  “Stops” are smaller white adhesive patches a little bit bigger than a silver dollar that are placed directly above either or both rear hooves.  You might even catch “stops” in black rubber cut from a tire’s inner tube and affixed with electrical tape.  Much like “blowouts”, they are used to cushion the impact of the front hooves coming back and striking the rear legs just above the rear hooves.  Problematic runners “hit themselves” whenever their strides are fully stretched.  When racing, their strides are fully extended just about every jump of the race. 

What’s more, while the “blowouts” and “stops” might at times delay a horse from drawing blood after repeated stinging contact, the invisible “impact” pain doesn’t disappear, but rather grows more intense with every next stride.  This is why nearly every runner affixed with either “stops” or “blowouts”, and in some cases both, finish their race as they turn for home.  

Horses are hardly dummies.  Why would they continue to fully extend themselves if they we’re in excruciating discomfort?  And much like any type of negative “shoe”, betting on any horse who “hits” himself anywhere on his body is a big time “no-no”. 

In addition to “shoes” and “horses who hit themselves”, also essential in my day-to-day wagering are track running profiles.  These running profiles tell you what particular “running style” wins at each specific distance over the dirt as well as over the turf.  

I’m sure you are aware or have at least heard others say that “speed” is holding, or they’re getting caught late, or even that they’re winning from everywhere.  This is nothing more than a “verbal” assessment of running profiles on that afternoon.  

In PART 3, we’ll elaborate on “running profiles” and show you how they are worth their weight in winning mutuel tickets.  Stay tuned!

© Joe Takach 2002