WHY DO PHYSICALLY BAD-LOOKING HORSES WIN RACES---PART 4

In the first 3 parts of this 4 part series we looked at the obvious reasons why bad and/or marginal-looking horses win races every day at every racetrack in America. 

We’ll conclude with the less obvious. 

Most likely by now you’ve heard the horse racing axiom “there are 1000 ways to lose a race”.  In fact, if you’ve played this game half as long as I, most likely you could increase that number to at least 1500! 

Here’s only one scenario with umpteen explanations of which I’m sure I’ll miss some, but at least point you in the right direction. 

You just got beat by what you thought to be a 1-legged goat who lit up the board @ $ 41.20! 

What just happened? 

Is your handicapping that bad?  What did you miss, if anything?   

How about these following explanations? 

1---THE OUTRIGHT STIFF 

            This one is sometimes quite obvious and at other times quite subtle.  “Subtle stiffs” could come about in many different ways from not offering a pre-race warm-up (and thus failing to get the oxygen-delivering red blood cells up from the spleen) to cocking a runner’s head to the left or right just before the gate opens so that he’ll break poorly and lose any chance of winning.  Variations of the “jockey stiff” are almost endless and are sometimes ordered directly by the trainer.  No, not in litigable English where he literally comes out and says “stiff” him and is overheard by a State official, but more likely instructions would sound like this: “Keep him off the inside today” (while knowing the inside is “golden”), or “don’t kill him today”, or take back off the pace today I want to send him longer next out and want to teach him to “rate” (knowing damn right well that he can’t go longer nor can he win without the lead), etc.  You get the drift!  

2---DIRT IN THE FACE 

            You could throw a “Sherman” tank at some talented horses and they’d merely sidestep it on their way to victory.   Other more fainthearted runners merely need a little hard dirt thrown in their faces and they stop on a dime and leave change.  I see it everyday because I’m specifically looking for it.  When 2 winners run exactly the same “number” and one did it free of dirt in his face while the other almost “inhaled” the soil from gate to wire before getting up in the very last jump, which one would you bet today if they faced each other?  All things else being equal (which they rarely are), the horse who earned the same number while eating dirt is clearly superior.  In most cases, they can easily increase their “numbers” if able to get a cleaner “trip”.

3---TOOK A BAD STEP 

            Whenever horses literally “break down” during a race, more often than not, they somehow took a bad step that further aggravated an exiting problem to the point of no return.  Sadly, we’ve all seen horses pulled up prematurely, but let’s face reality.  They’re athletes; they do get hurt.  It all goes along with the territory.  But the bad step I’m talking about is the one that is silently taken somewhere in the race (either known or unknown to the jockey).  The horse completes the race, but without ever threatening in any way, shape, or form.  He even might have been the favorite and if so, failed to run to his backing.  In that exact scenario, a bad-looking horse could and often does beat this misfortunate race favorite.  I could easily miss this step too when watching the actual race.  But if he pulls up too quickly in the post race, or next out shows up unexpectedly with first time front wraps that cover enlarged ankles, a bad step was the most likely culprit. 

4---SOUNDLY BUMPED AT THE BREAK 

            Unless your track supplies you with head-ons of the break, you can often miss subtle or unobvious bumps that can throw a horse off early in the race and cause a subpar performance.  If a race favorite falls victim to this mishap, a poor-looking horse could win if he avoided the same trouble.  It happens all the time.  The most crucial part of any race is not the stretch run, but rather the actual “break” itself!  If you miss the break, you’ll most likely lose the race as well. 

5---PULLED MUSCLE DURING START OR SOMEWHERE DURING THE RACE. 

Muscle pulls are invisible to the naked eye, even if they are your muscles.  The only way you know you pulled something is the pain that you feel and the difficulty you have when you walk and/or run.  So too is it in racehorses.  Since they can’t speak, the post-race inspection in the unsaddling area can be the essential “tell” to future performances of all participants.  If they walk poorly in the post-race, they’re hurt! 

6---ASSISTANT STARTER MISHANDLES THE BREAK 

            Whenever you see a horse break poorly, don’t be so quick to blame either the horse and/or jockey unless a past history of bad starts seem to be the rule rather than the exception.  Needless to mention, if an assistant starter has a runner’s head cocked to one side or holds the bridle too long once the gates fly open, a horrible start is the most likely outcome.  Sadly, this seems to happen nearly every race.  It’s tough to get 6,8 10, or 12 horses to stand perfectly still so a fair start can be had by all. 

Those are just a few of the more common subtle problems encountered during any race and ones that can easily “snap defeat from the jaws of victory”.  So the next time a bad-looking horse beats you thru no fault of your own, at least now you have a few ideas as to the “why” and where to begin looking if you don’t know why!

© Joe Takach 2001